Mexico · Monthly

March 2026

Final Issued 2026-10-11 · version 3 · Baseline 1991-2020 · next update 2026-10-12

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Version history (3)
  • version 3 · Final · 2026-10-11 — no change in the headline figures
  • version 2 · Final · 2026-10-11
  • version 1 · Final · 2026-10-11 — first issue

1 Key messages and climate synopsis

  • National mean temperature of 22.2 °C (+2.4 °C relative to 1991–2020): the warmest March in the 1979–2026 series.
  • National precipitation of 16.5 mm, 96% of normal: the 31st driest March in the 1981–2026 series.
  • The highest maximum temperature at GHCN stations was 41.7 °C at Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C. on 20 March.
  • 1 station records were broken (stations with at least 20 years of data).
  • Maximum temperature exceeded its 90th percentile on 48% of days (national mean; 10% expected).
  • Heat waves of national extent: 3; cold waves: 0.
  • 17% of the country was in drought by SPI-3 (Jan–Mar 2026), mainly in Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala and Ciudad de México.
  • ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific (ONI JFM 2026: −0.2 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Mean temperature
22.2°C
+2.4 °C vs. normal (normal 19.9)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Maximum temperature
30.5°C
+3.8 °C vs. normal (normal 26.7)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Minimum temperature
13.9°C
+1.0 °C vs. normal (normal 13.0)
Slightly above normal
5th warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 2011)
Precipitation
16.5mm
96% of normal (normal 17.1)
Near normal
31st driest of 46 (1981–2026)
Station records
1

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

2 Global and regional climate drivers

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, March 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, March 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Source: NOAA NCEI / PSL

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)

RegionAnomaly (°C)Change from preceding period (°C)
Niño 1+21.30.4
Niño 30.20.2
Niño 3.40.00.2
Niño 40.30.1

Mean of the months in the period (OISST v2.1)

Source: NOAA CPC

ENSO-neutral conditions: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for JFM 2026 was −0.2 °C.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Source: NOAA CPC

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

Source: NOAA PSL

Teleconnection indices

IndexValuePhase
PDO−1.4Negative
NAO2.7Positive
TNA0.0Neutral

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Tropical North Atlantic (TNA).

Source: NOAA CPC, NOAA NCEI, NOAA PSL

The Niño 3.4 anomaly was +0.03 °C (+0.23 °C relative to the preceding period).

The MJO was active on 31 of 31 days, most often in phase 8 (Western Hemisphere and Africa); mean amplitude 1.6.

Other indices: PDO −1.42 (negative phase); NAO +2.69 (positive phase); TNA +0.04 (neutral phase).

3 Precipitation

National precipitation
16.5mm
96% of normal (normal 17.1)
Near normal
31st driest of 46 (1981–2026)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Accumulated precipitation

Accumulated precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal by state

Percent of normal by state

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Precipitation by region

RegionTotal (mm)Normal (mm)Difference (%)Category
Northwest10.312.8−19.8Near normal
North8.514.3−40.5Below normal
Northeast3.724.3−84.7Much below normal
North-central3.613.0−72.6Much below normal
West-central5.38.8−39.4Below normal
Central8.717.5−50.5Below normal
South23.919.919.9Near normal
East48.240.319.6Near normal
Yucatán Peninsula78.228.3176.6Much above normal

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean precipitation

Daily national mean precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean and grid-cell maximum

DayNational mean (mm)Grid maximum (mm)State
2026-03-010.210.4Yucatán
2026-03-020.211.6Yucatán
2026-03-030.215.4Chihuahua
2026-03-040.17.7Yucatán
2026-03-050.649.3Yucatán
2026-03-060.527.2Yucatán
2026-03-070.315.0Quintana Roo
2026-03-080.429.0Tamaulipas
2026-03-090.446.9Baja California
2026-03-100.520.7Chihuahua
2026-03-110.112.9Quintana Roo
2026-03-120.641.9Quintana Roo
2026-03-131.066.6Chiapas
2026-03-140.856.8Quintana Roo
2026-03-150.225.8Yucatán
2026-03-160.357.2Veracruz
2026-03-173.3150.6Chiapas
2026-03-180.766.1Quintana Roo
2026-03-190.423.5Campeche
2026-03-200.218.3Veracruz
2026-03-210.18.9Chiapas
2026-03-220.19.7Oaxaca
2026-03-230.17.5Jalisco
2026-03-240.116.3Oaxaca
2026-03-250.111.3Oaxaca
2026-03-260.17.1Chiapas
2026-03-270.214.7Chiapas
2026-03-280.535.2Oaxaca
2026-03-291.335.4Chiapas
2026-03-301.846.7Chihuahua
2026-03-311.127.0Sonora

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National precipitation in March of each year

National precipitation in March of each year

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National accumulated precipitation was 16.5 mm, 96% of the 1991–2020 average (17.1 mm), category “Near normal”. It was the 31st driest March in the 1981–2026 series.

The region with the highest percentage of normal was Yucatán Peninsula (277%) and the lowest was Northeast (15%).

The largest daily grid-cell total was estimated on 17 March in Chiapas (150.6 mm).

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

4 Temperature

Mean temperature
22.2°C
+2.4 °C vs. normal (normal 19.9)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature

Mean temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

National mean temperature anomaly in March of each year

National mean temperature anomaly in March of each year

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national mean temperature was 22.2 °C, 2.4 °C above the 1991–2020 average (19.9 °C), category “Extremely above normal”. It was the warmest March in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+4.8 °C) and the smallest in Central (−0.1 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature
30.5°C
+3.8 °C vs. normal (normal 26.7)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national maximum temperature

Daily national maximum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national maximum temperature was 30.5 °C, 3.8 °C above the 1991–2020 average (26.7 °C), category “Extremely above normal”. It was the warmest March in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+5.7 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (+0.4 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature
13.9°C
+1.0 °C vs. normal (normal 13.0)
Slightly above normal
5th warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 2011)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national minimum temperature

Daily national minimum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national minimum temperature was 13.9 °C, 1.0 °C above the 1991–2020 average (13.0 °C), category “Slightly above normal”. It was the 5th warmest March in the 1979–2026 series (tied with 2011).

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+4.0 °C) and the smallest in Central (−1.6 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

5 Climate extremes and records

Highest maximum temperature
41.7°C
Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C. · 2026-03-20
Lowest minimum temperature
9.7°C
San Felipe Bcn, B.C. · 2026-03-10

Source: NOAA NCEI

Highest maximum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
Baja CaliforniaEjido Nuevo Leon (Obs)41.72026-03-20
ChiapasFrancisco Sarabia38.52026-03-16

Source: NOAA NCEI

Lowest minimum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
Baja CaliforniaSan Felipe Bcn9.72026-03-10
ChiapasFrancisco Sarabia18.02026-03-20
VeracruzOrizaba10.22026-03-02
YucatánProgreso18.52026-03-21

Source: NOAA NCEI

Station records broken

StationStateVariableNew valueDatePrevious recordPrevious date
Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs)Baja CaliforniaHighest maximum temperature41.72026-03-2037.82004-03-21

Most extreme daily value of the period against the same period in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years; for weeks, the same calendar month).

Source: NOAA NCEI

Climate-extremes indices (national mean)

IndexDescriptionValueNormalDifferenceUnit
TX90pWarm days (Tmax > 90th percentile)47.910.037.9%
TN90pWarm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile)15.010.05.0%
TX10pCool days (Tmax < 10th percentile)2.310.0−7.7%
TN10pCold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile)5.710.0−4.3%
FDFrost days (Tmin < 0 °C)0.10.5−0.5d
SUSummer days (Tmax > 25 °C)27.520.37.2d
TRTropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C)5.04.70.3d
WSDIWarm spell days (≥ 6 days)6.5——d
CSDICold spell days (≥ 6 days)0.2——d
Rx1dayMaximum 1-day precipitation7.97.20.7mm
Rx5dayMaximum 5-day precipitation11.110.50.6mm
CDDConsecutive dry days (< 1 mm)22.022.2−0.2d
CWDConsecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm)1.41.20.1d

Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Frost days by state

Frost days by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Heat and cold waves

DatesTypeDetails
2026-03-01 – 2026-03-04Heat waveUp to 73% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Northwest, North, Northeast, North-central and West-central.
2026-03-13 – 2026-03-15Heat waveUp to 79% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Northwest, North, Northeast, North-central, West-central and South.
2026-03-25 – 2026-03-27Heat waveUp to 61% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Northwest, North, Northeast, North-central and West-central.

Wave: at least 3 consecutive days with at least half of the country above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature (heat) or below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature (cold). At most the 10 most intense are listed.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

6 Drought

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending March 2026

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending March 2026
SPI computed from CHIRPS; gamma distribution fitted to 1991–2020 accumulations.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Share of the country by SPI category

Share of the country by SPI category

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

States with the lowest SPI-3

StateSPI-1SPI-3SPI-6SPI-12Category
Tamaulipas−1.3−2.0−0.9−0.2Extreme drought
Tlaxcala−0.9−1.6−0.51.2Severe drought
Ciudad de México−1.0−1.5−0.51.5Moderate drought
Nuevo León−0.8−1.4−1.4−1.0Moderate drought
Puebla−0.5−1.20.10.6Moderate drought
San Luis Potosí−0.5−1.0−1.10.0Mild drought
Veracruz−0.5−1.00.80.9Mild drought
Querétaro−0.7−0.9−0.31.0Mild drought
Morelos−0.4−0.90.11.4Mild drought
Aguascalientes−0.3−0.8−1.00.2Mild drought

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

SPI-3 (Jan–Mar 2026): national mean −0.30; 17% of the country in drought (SPI ≤ −1.0) and 9% in severe or extreme drought.

Most affected states: Tamaulipas (−2.02), Tlaxcala (−1.61) and Ciudad de México (−1.46).

SPI-1 (March 2026): 29% of the country in drought.

SPI-6 (Oct 2025–Mar 2026): 21% of the country in drought.

SPI-12 (Apr 2025–Mar 2026): 13% of the country in drought.

7 Severe weather and notable events

No tropical cyclone came within 300 km of the country.

9 Outlook

Outlook for April 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for April 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Outlook for Apr–Jun 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for Apr–Jun 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Probability of each tercile by region, Apr–Jun 2026 (%)

RegionPrecipitation: belowPrecipitation: normalPrecipitation: aboveTemp.: belowTemp.: normalTemp.: above
Northwest22.031.047.019.026.055.0
North25.033.042.07.024.070.0
Northeast31.031.038.06.032.062.0
North-central24.032.044.06.026.068.0
West-central19.033.048.010.025.064.0
Central29.033.038.014.033.053.0
South32.032.036.024.031.046.0
East33.033.034.024.028.048.0
Yucatán Peninsula36.033.032.018.024.058.0

Source: NOAA CPC

Probabilistic outlook from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialised in April 2026, relative to 1991–2020 terciles. It is not an official forecast: consult the national meteorological service.

Precipitation, April 2026: above normal is favoured over 71% of the country and below normal over 1%.

Mean temperature, April 2026: above normal is favoured over 80% of the country and below normal over 1%.

Precipitation, Apr–Jun 2026: above normal is favoured over 47% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Mean temperature, Apr–Jun 2026: above normal is favoured over 95% of the country and below normal over 0%.

10 Annexes

Report climate regions

Report climate regions

Monthly precipitation by state (mm)

StateJanFebMar
Aguascalientes7.00.00.9
Baja California16.424.36.7
Baja California Sur18.62.20.3
Campeche29.917.455.1
Chiapas51.129.855.7
Chihuahua27.315.213.1
Ciudad de México1.00.12.5
Coahuila14.60.61.8
Colima18.90.00.9
Durango33.51.17.5
Guanajuato11.70.00.8
Guerrero5.85.61.2
Hidalgo8.02.315.3
Jalisco15.70.79.0
Estado de México8.60.42.8
Michoacán13.90.12.3
Morelos0.11.21.7
Nayarit15.00.68.1
Nuevo León7.50.14.8
Oaxaca18.115.414.5
Puebla9.16.312.1
Querétaro5.80.33.5
Quintana Roo39.620.6116.5
San Luis Potosí9.30.74.6
Sinaloa36.94.68.1
Sonora38.111.616.3
Tabasco136.743.6114.7
Tamaulipas4.10.12.8
Tlaxcala1.40.04.5
Veracruz51.127.325.4
Yucatán21.810.468.6
Zacatecas13.20.02.7

CSV

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Monthly maximum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMar
Aguascalientes22.827.428.3
Baja California21.223.228.1
Baja California Sur25.527.530.1
Campeche28.530.132.4
Chiapas27.829.130.8
Chihuahua19.124.129.1
Ciudad de México21.023.823.0
Coahuila20.627.730.7
Colima31.131.932.6
Durango22.327.229.4
Guanajuato25.129.229.7
Guerrero32.133.733.5
Hidalgo22.225.926.5
Jalisco27.430.030.9
Estado de México24.127.326.6
Michoacán30.833.433.8
Morelos29.032.332.1
Nayarit28.430.331.2
Nuevo León22.428.631.1
Oaxaca28.930.131.4
Puebla25.928.628.8
Querétaro23.427.628.4
Quintana Roo29.030.232.0
San Luis Potosí23.228.229.3
Sinaloa29.130.832.7
Sonora23.527.132.3
Tabasco27.128.730.8
Tamaulipas23.429.031.9
Tlaxcala22.725.424.8
Veracruz25.227.329.4
Yucatán29.731.533.3
Zacatecas20.725.826.7

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly mean temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMar
Aguascalientes14.817.619.0
Baja California16.217.621.8
Baja California Sur19.721.023.7
Campeche22.623.326.4
Chiapas22.522.725.3
Chihuahua10.514.618.9
Ciudad de México12.714.414.9
Coahuila12.818.421.8
Colima25.225.625.8
Durango13.917.119.4
Guanajuato16.919.320.5
Guerrero24.625.525.7
Hidalgo14.916.818.2
Jalisco19.421.121.9
Estado de México15.216.717.5
Michoacán22.023.724.3
Morelos19.722.123.1
Nayarit21.222.223.2
Nuevo León15.020.022.7
Oaxaca21.121.523.6
Puebla17.218.519.8
Querétaro16.418.720.1
Quintana Roo23.223.526.2
San Luis Potosí15.418.320.1
Sinaloa20.922.024.8
Sonora16.219.223.5
Tabasco23.423.926.8
Tamaulipas16.720.724.0
Tlaxcala13.214.615.2
Veracruz20.521.624.2
Yucatán23.324.026.6
Zacatecas13.416.817.9

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly minimum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFebMar
Aguascalientes6.87.99.7
Baja California11.212.115.5
Baja California Sur14.014.517.2
Campeche16.716.520.4
Chiapas17.116.319.9
Chihuahua2.05.08.6
Ciudad de México4.55.06.7
Coahuila4.99.112.9
Colima19.319.418.9
Durango5.57.19.5
Guanajuato8.69.411.2
Guerrero17.217.217.9
Hidalgo7.77.89.8
Jalisco11.312.212.9
Estado de México6.36.18.4
Michoacán13.313.914.8
Morelos10.511.814.2
Nayarit14.014.215.2
Nuevo León7.711.514.3
Oaxaca13.412.915.8
Puebla8.58.410.8
Querétaro9.49.811.9
Quintana Roo17.516.720.4
San Luis Potosí7.58.510.9
Sinaloa12.813.316.9
Sonora8.811.314.8
Tabasco19.719.222.8
Tamaulipas10.012.316.1
Tlaxcala3.83.75.6
Veracruz15.815.918.9
Yucatán16.916.520.0
Zacatecas6.17.79.2

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations used

IdNameStateLatitudeLongitudeAltitude (m)Days with data (Tmax) (%)
MXM00076040Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs)Baja California32.4−115.211.371.0
MXM00076055San Felipe BcnBaja California31.0−114.815.077.0
MXM00076061Puerto PenascoSonora31.3−113.562.00.0
MXM00076593ProgresoYucatán21.3−89.72.40.0
MXM00076737OrizabaVeracruz18.9−97.11259.00.0
MXM00076843Francisco SarabiaChiapas16.8−93.31051.968.0

CSV

Source: NOAA NCEI

11 Glossary, methodology and sources

Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).

Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CHIRPS. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.

SourceProductLicenseCitation
UCSB Climate Hazards CenterCHIRPS v3.0, 0.05°See provider termsClimate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara. CHIRPS v3.0.
NOAA CPCONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AOPublic domain (NOAA)NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA NCEI / PSLExtended Reconstructed SST v5 (ERSST v5), 2°Public domain (NOAA)Huang et al. (2017), J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
GDACSGlobal Disaster Alert and Coordination System event listSee provider terms—
NOAA NCEIGHCN-DailyPublic domain (NOAA)Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1
NOAA NCEIIBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracksPublic domain (NOAA)Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
NOAA NCEIPacific Decadal Oscillation index (ERSST v5)Public domain (NOAA)—
NOAA CPCNorth American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tercile probabilities, 1°Public domain (NOAA)Kirtman et al. (2014), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
NOAA PSLReal-time OLR MJO Index (ROMI)Public domain (NOAA)Kiladis et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1
NOAA PSLTropical Northern Atlantic index (TNA)Public domain (NOAA)Enfield et al. (1999), J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/1999JC900039
geoBoundariesgeoBoundaries gbOpen (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI))Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)—

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