Mexico · Monthly

February 2026

Final Issued 2026-10-11 · version 3 · Baseline 1991-2020 · next update 2026-10-12

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Version history (3)
  • version 3 · Final · 2026-10-11 — no change in the headline figures
  • version 2 · Final · 2026-10-11
  • version 1 · Final · 2026-10-11 — first issue

1 Key messages and climate synopsis

  • National mean temperature of 19.5 °C (+2.0 °C relative to 1991–2020): the warmest February in the 1979–2026 series (tied with 2025).
  • National precipitation of 9.2 mm, 46% of normal: the 4th driest February in the 1981–2026 series.
  • The highest maximum temperature at GHCN stations was 37.2 °C at Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C. on 28 February.
  • 1 station records were broken (stations with at least 20 years of data).
  • Maximum temperature exceeded its 90th percentile on 46% of days (national mean; 10% expected).
  • Heat waves of national extent: 2; cold waves: 0.
  • 14% of the country was in drought by SPI-3 (Dec 2025–Feb 2026), mainly in Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Tamaulipas.
  • ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific (ONI DJF 2026: −0.4 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Mean temperature
19.5°C
+2.0 °C vs. normal (normal 17.6)
Well above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 2025)
Maximum temperature
28.0°C
+3.8 °C vs. normal (normal 24.2)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Minimum temperature
11.1°C
+0.2 °C vs. normal (normal 10.9)
Normal
13th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Precipitation
9.2mm
46% of normal (normal 20.2)
Below normal
4th driest of 46 (1981–2026)
Station records
1

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

2 Global and regional climate drivers

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, February 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, February 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Source: NOAA NCEI / PSL

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)

RegionAnomaly (°C)Change from preceding period (°C)
Niño 1+20.91.2
Niño 3−0.00.5
Niño 3.4−0.20.3
Niño 40.20.3

Mean of the months in the period (OISST v2.1)

Source: NOAA CPC

ENSO-neutral conditions: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for DJF 2026 was −0.4 °C.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Source: NOAA CPC

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

Source: NOAA PSL

Teleconnection indices

IndexValuePhase
PDO−1.0Negative
NAO0.7Positive
TNA0.4Neutral

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Tropical North Atlantic (TNA).

Source: NOAA CPC, NOAA NCEI, NOAA PSL

The Niño 3.4 anomaly was −0.20 °C (+0.34 °C relative to the preceding period).

The MJO was active on 20 of 28 days, most often in phase 3 (Indian Ocean); mean amplitude 1.5.

Other indices: PDO −1.00 (negative phase); NAO +0.68 (positive phase); TNA +0.38 (neutral phase).

3 Precipitation

National precipitation
9.2mm
46% of normal (normal 20.2)
Below normal
4th driest of 46 (1981–2026)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Accumulated precipitation

Accumulated precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal by state

Percent of normal by state

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Precipitation by region

RegionTotal (mm)Normal (mm)Difference (%)Category
Northwest11.220.3−44.8Below normal
North7.615.4−50.7Below normal
Northeast0.119.1−99.4Much below normal
North-central0.414.8−97.6Much below normal
West-central0.413.1−97.0Much below normal
Central2.814.8−80.8Much below normal
South17.322.1−22.0Below normal
East31.554.1−41.8Below normal
Yucatán Peninsula16.431.8−48.3Below normal

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean precipitation

Daily national mean precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean and grid-cell maximum

DayNational mean (mm)Grid maximum (mm)State
2026-02-010.529.0Veracruz
2026-02-020.214.2Baja California
2026-02-030.125.7Oaxaca
2026-02-040.117.2Oaxaca
2026-02-050.747.4Oaxaca
2026-02-060.437.3Chiapas
2026-02-070.213.0Baja California
2026-02-080.17.9Chihuahua
2026-02-090.316.0Chihuahua
2026-02-101.365.0Chihuahua
2026-02-110.246.4Baja California
2026-02-120.334.6Chiapas
2026-02-130.725.5Baja California
2026-02-140.316.3Sonora
2026-02-150.115.6Oaxaca
2026-02-160.414.1Baja California
2026-02-170.739.8Baja California
2026-02-180.111.4Baja California
2026-02-190.14.6Veracruz
2026-02-200.114.3Baja California
2026-02-210.03.3Baja California
2026-02-220.543.3Puebla
2026-02-230.990.6Chiapas
2026-02-240.15.2Oaxaca
2026-02-250.03.3Chiapas
2026-02-260.011.5Chiapas
2026-02-270.111.8Campeche
2026-02-280.313.7Chiapas

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National precipitation in February of each year

National precipitation in February of each year

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National accumulated precipitation was 9.2 mm, 46% of the 1991–2020 average (20.2 mm), category “Below normal”. It was the 4th driest February in the 1981–2026 series.

The region with the highest percentage of normal was South (78%) and the lowest was Northeast (1%).

The largest daily grid-cell total was estimated on 23 February in Chiapas (90.6 mm).

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

4 Temperature

Mean temperature
19.5°C
+2.0 °C vs. normal (normal 17.6)
Well above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026) (tied with 2025)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature

Mean temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

National mean temperature anomaly in February of each year

National mean temperature anomaly in February of each year

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national mean temperature was 19.5 °C, 2.0 °C above the 1991–2020 average (17.6 °C), category “Well above normal”. It was the warmest February in the 1979–2026 series (tied with 2025).

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+3.3 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (−1.3 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature
28.0°C
+3.8 °C vs. normal (normal 24.2)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Lowest and highest monthly mean maximum temperature by region

RegionLowest value (°C)StationHighest value (°C)Station
Northwest25.1San Felipe Bcn, B.C.28.1Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C.

Station monthly means (GHCN-Daily, ≥ 80% of days with data).

Source: NOAA NCEI

Daily national maximum temperature

Daily national maximum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national maximum temperature was 28.0 °C, 3.8 °C above the 1991–2020 average (24.2 °C), category “Extremely above normal”. It was the warmest February in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in North (+5.1 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (+0.2 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature
11.1°C
+0.2 °C vs. normal (normal 10.9)
Normal
13th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Daily national minimum temperature

Daily national minimum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national minimum temperature was 11.1 °C, 0.2 °C above the 1991–2020 average (10.9 °C), category “Normal”. It was the 13th warmest February in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+2.5 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (−2.9 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

5 Climate extremes and records

Highest maximum temperature
37.2°C
Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C. · 2026-02-28
Lowest minimum temperature
4.7°C
Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C. · 2026-02-21

Source: NOAA NCEI

Highest maximum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
Baja CaliforniaEjido Nuevo Leon (Obs)37.22026-02-28
ChiapasFrancisco Sarabia37.02026-02-27

Source: NOAA NCEI

Lowest minimum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
Baja CaliforniaEjido Nuevo Leon (Obs)4.72026-02-21
ChiapasFrancisco Sarabia11.02026-02-03
YucatánProgreso12.22026-02-07

Source: NOAA NCEI

Station records broken

StationStateVariableNew valueDatePrevious recordPrevious date
Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs)Baja CaliforniaHighest maximum temperature37.22026-02-2833.02025-02-25

Most extreme daily value of the period against the same period in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years; for weeks, the same calendar month).

Source: NOAA NCEI

Climate-extremes indices (national mean)

IndexDescriptionValueNormalDifferenceUnit
TX90pWarm days (Tmax > 90th percentile)45.810.035.8%
TN90pWarm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile)10.410.00.4%
TX10pCool days (Tmax < 10th percentile)2.410.0−7.6%
TN10pCold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile)11.310.01.3%
FDFrost days (Tmin < 0 °C)0.51.3−0.8d
SUSummer days (Tmax > 25 °C)20.313.66.7d
TRTropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C)1.72.8−1.0d
WSDIWarm spell days (≥ 6 days)5.5——d
CSDICold spell days (≥ 6 days)0.5——d
Rx1dayMaximum 1-day precipitation4.78.1−3.4mm
Rx5dayMaximum 5-day precipitation6.012.8−6.7mm
CDDConsecutive dry days (< 1 mm)22.319.82.6d
CWDConsecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm)0.81.4−0.6d

Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Frost days by state

Frost days by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Heat and cold waves

DatesTypeDetails
2026-02-16 – 2026-02-21Heat waveUp to 63% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: North, Northeast, North-central, West-central, Central, South, East and Yucatán Peninsula.
2026-02-25 – 2026-02-28Heat waveUp to 89% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: Northwest, North, Northeast, North-central, West-central, Central and South.

Wave: at least 3 consecutive days with at least half of the country above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature (heat) or below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature (cold). At most the 10 most intense are listed.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

6 Drought

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending February 2026

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending February 2026
SPI computed from CHIRPS; gamma distribution fitted to 1991–2020 accumulations.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Share of the country by SPI category

Share of the country by SPI category

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

States with the lowest SPI-3

StateSPI-1SPI-3SPI-6SPI-12Category
Hidalgo−1.3−1.50.21.4Moderate drought
Tlaxcala−1.4−1.30.11.3Moderate drought
Tamaulipas−2.2−1.3−0.5−0.1Moderate drought
San Luis Potosí−1.6−1.1−0.30.0Moderate drought
Puebla−0.9−1.10.20.7Moderate drought
Querétaro−1.3−1.10.11.0Moderate drought
Nuevo León−2.2−1.0−1.1−1.0Mild drought
Ciudad de México−0.8−0.90.81.5Mild drought
Morelos−0.2−0.80.81.4Mild drought
Zacatecas−1.5−0.8−0.30.1Mild drought

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

SPI-3 (Dec 2025–Feb 2026): national mean −0.22; 14% of the country in drought (SPI ≤ −1.0) and 5% in severe or extreme drought.

Most affected states: Hidalgo (−1.48), Tlaxcala (−1.33) and Tamaulipas (−1.30).

SPI-1 (February 2026): 43% of the country in drought.

SPI-6 (Sep 2025–Feb 2026): 15% of the country in drought.

SPI-12 (Mar 2025–Feb 2026): 15% of the country in drought.

7 Severe weather and notable events

No tropical cyclone came within 300 km of the country.

9 Outlook

Outlook for March 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for March 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Outlook for Mar–May 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for Mar–May 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Probability of each tercile by region, Mar–May 2026 (%)

RegionPrecipitation: belowPrecipitation: normalPrecipitation: aboveTemp.: belowTemp.: normalTemp.: above
Northwest35.034.032.018.025.058.0
North25.036.039.07.018.075.0
Northeast30.036.034.05.022.072.0
North-central25.032.043.013.019.068.0
West-central20.033.047.017.023.060.0
Central25.033.042.018.030.052.0
South28.033.039.018.030.052.0
East32.035.034.019.028.053.0
Yucatán Peninsula32.035.034.015.027.057.0

Source: NOAA CPC

Probabilistic outlook from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialised in March 2026, relative to 1991–2020 terciles. It is not an official forecast: consult the national meteorological service.

Precipitation, March 2026: above normal is favoured over 69% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Mean temperature, March 2026: above normal is favoured over 94% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Precipitation, Mar–May 2026: above normal is favoured over 35% of the country and below normal over 0%.

Mean temperature, Mar–May 2026: above normal is favoured over 99% of the country and below normal over 0%.

10 Annexes

Report climate regions

Report climate regions

Monthly precipitation by state (mm)

StateJanFeb
Aguascalientes7.00.0
Baja California16.424.3
Baja California Sur18.62.2
Campeche29.917.4
Chiapas51.129.8
Chihuahua27.315.2
Ciudad de México1.00.1
Coahuila14.60.6
Colima18.90.0
Durango33.51.1
Guanajuato11.70.0
Guerrero5.85.6
Hidalgo8.02.3
Jalisco15.70.7
Estado de México8.60.4
Michoacán13.90.1
Morelos0.11.2
Nayarit15.00.6
Nuevo León7.50.1
Oaxaca18.115.4
Puebla9.16.3
Querétaro5.80.3
Quintana Roo39.620.6
San Luis Potosí9.30.7
Sinaloa36.94.6
Sonora38.111.6
Tabasco136.743.6
Tamaulipas4.10.1
Tlaxcala1.40.0
Veracruz51.127.3
Yucatán21.810.4
Zacatecas13.20.0

CSV

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Monthly maximum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFeb
Aguascalientes22.827.4
Baja California21.223.2
Baja California Sur25.527.5
Campeche28.530.1
Chiapas27.829.1
Chihuahua19.124.1
Ciudad de México21.023.8
Coahuila20.627.7
Colima31.131.9
Durango22.327.2
Guanajuato25.129.2
Guerrero32.133.7
Hidalgo22.225.9
Jalisco27.430.0
Estado de México24.127.3
Michoacán30.833.4
Morelos29.032.3
Nayarit28.430.3
Nuevo León22.428.6
Oaxaca28.930.1
Puebla25.928.6
Querétaro23.427.6
Quintana Roo29.030.2
San Luis Potosí23.228.2
Sinaloa29.130.8
Sonora23.527.1
Tabasco27.128.7
Tamaulipas23.429.0
Tlaxcala22.725.4
Veracruz25.227.3
Yucatán29.731.5
Zacatecas20.725.8

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly mean temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFeb
Aguascalientes14.817.6
Baja California16.217.6
Baja California Sur19.721.0
Campeche22.623.3
Chiapas22.522.7
Chihuahua10.514.6
Ciudad de México12.714.4
Coahuila12.818.4
Colima25.225.6
Durango13.917.1
Guanajuato16.919.3
Guerrero24.625.5
Hidalgo14.916.8
Jalisco19.421.1
Estado de México15.216.7
Michoacán22.023.7
Morelos19.722.1
Nayarit21.222.2
Nuevo León15.020.0
Oaxaca21.121.5
Puebla17.218.5
Querétaro16.418.7
Quintana Roo23.223.5
San Luis Potosí15.418.3
Sinaloa20.922.0
Sonora16.219.2
Tabasco23.423.9
Tamaulipas16.720.7
Tlaxcala13.214.6
Veracruz20.521.6
Yucatán23.324.0
Zacatecas13.416.8

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly minimum temperature by state (°C)

StateJanFeb
Aguascalientes6.87.9
Baja California11.212.1
Baja California Sur14.014.5
Campeche16.716.5
Chiapas17.116.3
Chihuahua2.05.0
Ciudad de México4.55.0
Coahuila4.99.1
Colima19.319.4
Durango5.57.1
Guanajuato8.69.4
Guerrero17.217.2
Hidalgo7.77.8
Jalisco11.312.2
Estado de México6.36.1
Michoacán13.313.9
Morelos10.511.8
Nayarit14.014.2
Nuevo León7.711.5
Oaxaca13.412.9
Puebla8.58.4
Querétaro9.49.8
Quintana Roo17.516.7
San Luis Potosí7.58.5
Sinaloa12.813.3
Sonora8.811.3
Tabasco19.719.2
Tamaulipas10.012.3
Tlaxcala3.83.7
Veracruz15.815.9
Yucatán16.916.5
Zacatecas6.17.7

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations used

IdNameStateLatitudeLongitudeAltitude (m)Days with data (Tmax) (%)
MXM00076040Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs)Baja California32.4−115.211.393.0
MXM00076055San Felipe BcnBaja California31.0−114.815.082.0
MXM00076061Puerto PenascoSonora31.3−113.562.00.0
MXM00076593ProgresoYucatán21.3−89.72.40.0
MXM00076737OrizabaVeracruz18.9−97.11259.00.0
MXM00076843Francisco SarabiaChiapas16.8−93.31051.9100.0

CSV

Source: NOAA NCEI

11 Glossary, methodology and sources

Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).

Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CHIRPS. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.

SourceProductLicenseCitation
UCSB Climate Hazards CenterCHIRPS v3.0, 0.05°See provider termsClimate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara. CHIRPS v3.0.
NOAA CPCONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AOPublic domain (NOAA)NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA NCEI / PSLExtended Reconstructed SST v5 (ERSST v5), 2°Public domain (NOAA)Huang et al. (2017), J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
GDACSGlobal Disaster Alert and Coordination System event listSee provider terms—
NOAA NCEIGHCN-DailyPublic domain (NOAA)Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1
NOAA NCEIIBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracksPublic domain (NOAA)Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
NOAA NCEIPacific Decadal Oscillation index (ERSST v5)Public domain (NOAA)—
NOAA CPCNorth American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tercile probabilities, 1°Public domain (NOAA)Kirtman et al. (2014), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
NOAA PSLReal-time OLR MJO Index (ROMI)Public domain (NOAA)Kiladis et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1
NOAA PSLTropical Northern Atlantic index (TNA)Public domain (NOAA)Enfield et al. (1999), J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/1999JC900039
geoBoundariesgeoBoundaries gbOpen (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI))Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)—

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