ClimaBulletin

Mexico · Monthly

January 2026

Final Issued 2026-10-11 · version 3 · Baseline 1991-2020 · next update 2026-10-12

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Version history (3)
  • version 3 · Final · 2026-10-11 — no change in the headline figures
  • version 2 · Final · 2026-10-11
  • version 1 · Final · 2026-10-11 — first issue

1 Key messages and climate synopsis

  • National mean temperature of 17.0 °C (+1.1 °C relative to 1991–2020): the 2nd warmest January in the 1979–2026 series.
  • National precipitation of 24.4 mm, 90% of normal: the 26th driest January in the 1981–2026 series.
  • The highest maximum temperature at GHCN stations was 33.5 °C at Francisco Sarabia, Chis. on 25 January.
  • Maximum temperature exceeded its 90th percentile on 32% of days (national mean; 10% expected).
  • Heat waves of national extent: 1; cold waves: 0.
  • 15% of the country was in drought by SPI-3 (Nov 2025–Jan 2026), mainly in Morelos, Tlaxcala and Ciudad de México.
  • La Niña conditions of weak intensity in the equatorial Pacific (ONI NDJ 2026: −0.6 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Mean temperature
17.0°C
+1.1 °C vs. normal (normal 15.9)
Above normal
2nd warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Maximum temperature
24.3°C
+2.1 °C vs. normal (normal 22.2)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Minimum temperature
9.7°C
+0.0 °C vs. normal (normal 9.6)
Normal
16th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)
Precipitation
24.4mm
90% of normal (normal 27.1)
Near normal
26th driest of 46 (1981–2026)
Station records
0

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL, UCSB Climate Hazards Center

2 Global and regional climate drivers

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, January 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Sea-surface temperature anomaly, January 2026 (°C, 1991–2020)

Source: NOAA NCEI / PSL

Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions (°C)

RegionAnomaly (°C)Change from preceding period (°C)
Niño 1+2−0.30.1
Niño 3−0.50.2
Niño 3.4−0.50.1
Niño 4−0.00.2

Mean of the months in the period (OISST v2.1)

Source: NOAA CPC

La Niña conditions of weak intensity: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for NDJ 2026 was −0.6 °C.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly, last 24 months (°C)

Source: NOAA CPC

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

MJO phase diagram (real-time OMI)

Source: NOAA PSL

Teleconnection indices

IndexValuePhase
PDO−1.2Negative
NAO−0.4Neutral
TNA0.2Neutral

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Tropical North Atlantic (TNA).

Source: NOAA CPC, NOAA NCEI, NOAA PSL

The Niño 3.4 anomaly was −0.54 °C (+0.07 °C relative to the preceding period).

The MJO was active on 25 of 31 days, most often in phase 8 (Western Hemisphere and Africa); mean amplitude 1.3.

Other indices: PDO −1.24 (negative phase); NAO −0.36 (neutral phase); TNA +0.24 (neutral phase).

3 Precipitation

National precipitation
24.4mm
90% of normal (normal 27.1)
Near normal
26th driest of 46 (1981–2026)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Accumulated precipitation

Accumulated precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Percent of normal precipitation (1991–2020)

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Percent of normal by state

Percent of normal by state

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Precipitation by region

RegionTotal (mm)Normal (mm)Difference (%)Category
Northwest30.122.533.4Above normal
North25.120.224.4Above normal
Northeast5.721.3−73.4Much below normal
North-central11.519.4−41.0Below normal
West-central14.420.8−30.8Below normal
Central7.517.4−56.9Below normal
South25.231.7−20.5Below normal
East72.982.6−11.7Near normal
Yucatán Peninsula30.650.6−39.4Below normal

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean precipitation

Daily national mean precipitation

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Daily national mean and grid-cell maximum

DayNational mean (mm)Grid maximum (mm)State
2026-01-011.549.6Veracruz
2026-01-020.112.5Baja California
2026-01-030.114.7Baja California Sur
2026-01-040.317.0Baja California
2026-01-050.121.0Baja California
2026-01-060.213.5Chiapas
2026-01-071.428.6Sonora
2026-01-081.438.7Sonora
2026-01-090.29.7Coahuila
2026-01-100.527.7Coahuila
2026-01-111.8125.6Chiapas
2026-01-122.294.1Chiapas
2026-01-131.236.2Sinaloa
2026-01-140.214.9Veracruz
2026-01-150.736.2Campeche
2026-01-160.314.5Colima
2026-01-170.523.9Quintana Roo
2026-01-181.363.8Quintana Roo
2026-01-190.638.5Chiapas
2026-01-200.832.9Sinaloa
2026-01-211.023.8Durango
2026-01-220.412.2Quintana Roo
2026-01-230.722.8Sonora
2026-01-243.6117.1Sinaloa
2026-01-250.937.6Sonora
2026-01-260.734.3Chiapas
2026-01-270.864.3Chiapas
2026-01-280.211.6Veracruz
2026-01-290.215.5Sonora
2026-01-300.214.9Oaxaca
2026-01-310.525.6Chiapas

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National precipitation in January of each year

National precipitation in January of each year

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

National accumulated precipitation was 24.4 mm, 90% of the 1991–2020 average (27.1 mm), category “Near normal”. It was the 26th driest January in the 1981–2026 series.

The region with the highest percentage of normal was Northwest (133%) and the lowest was Northeast (27%).

The largest daily grid-cell total was estimated on 11 January in Chiapas (125.6 mm).

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

4 Temperature

Mean temperature
17.0°C
+1.1 °C vs. normal (normal 15.9)
Above normal
2nd warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature

Mean temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Mean temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Mean temperature anomaly by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations with the largest negative anomaly

RegionStateStationAltitude (m)Anomaly (°C)
Yucatán PeninsulaYucatánProgreso2.0−0.5

Source: NOAA NCEI

National mean temperature anomaly in January of each year

National mean temperature anomaly in January of each year

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national mean temperature was 17.0 °C, 1.1 °C above the 1991–2020 average (15.9 °C), category “Above normal”. It was the 2nd warmest January in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+2.3 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (−0.6 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature
24.3°C
+2.1 °C vs. normal (normal 22.2)
Extremely above normal
1st warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Maximum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Lowest and highest monthly mean maximum temperature by region

RegionLowest value (°C)StationHighest value (°C)Station
Northwest22.5San Felipe Bcn, B.C.24.1Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C.

Station monthly means (GHCN-Daily, ≥ 80% of days with data).

Source: NOAA NCEI

Daily national maximum temperature

Daily national maximum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national maximum temperature was 24.3 °C, 2.1 °C above the 1991–2020 average (22.2 °C), category “Extremely above normal”. It was the warmest January in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in West-central (+3.0 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (+0.4 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature
9.7°C
+0.0 °C vs. normal (normal 9.6)
Normal
16th warmest of 48 (1979–2026)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Minimum temperature anomaly (1991–2020)

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Lowest and highest monthly mean minimum temperature by region

RegionLowest value (°C)StationHighest value (°C)Station
Northwest9.2Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C.15.0San Felipe Bcn, B.C.

Station monthly means (GHCN-Daily, ≥ 80% of days with data).

Source: NOAA NCEI

Daily national minimum temperature

Daily national minimum temperature

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

The national minimum temperature was 9.7 °C, 0.0 °C above the 1991–2020 average (9.6 °C), category “Normal”. It was the 16th warmest January in the 1979–2026 series.

By region, the largest anomaly was in Northwest (+2.0 °C) and the smallest in Yucatán Peninsula (−1.6 °C).

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

5 Climate extremes and records

Highest maximum temperature
33.5°C
Francisco Sarabia, Chis. · 2026-01-25
Lowest minimum temperature
3.5°C
Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs), B.C. · 2026-01-10

Source: NOAA NCEI

Highest maximum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
Baja CaliforniaEjido Nuevo Leon (Obs)28.62026-01-15
ChiapasFrancisco Sarabia33.52026-01-25
YucatánProgreso33.02026-01-09

Source: NOAA NCEI

Lowest minimum temperature by state

StateStationTemperature (°C)Date
Baja CaliforniaEjido Nuevo Leon (Obs)3.52026-01-10
ChiapasFrancisco Sarabia15.02026-01-03
VeracruzOrizaba9.52026-01-08
YucatánProgreso15.02026-01-02

Source: NOAA NCEI

Climate-extremes indices (national mean)

IndexDescriptionValueNormalDifferenceUnit
TX90pWarm days (Tmax > 90th percentile)32.410.022.4%
TN90pWarm nights (Tmin > 90th percentile)8.410.0−1.6%
TX10pCool days (Tmax < 10th percentile)4.410.0−5.6%
TN10pCold nights (Tmin < 10th percentile)9.710.0−0.3%
FDFrost days (Tmin < 0 °C)2.32.5−0.2d
SUSummer days (Tmax > 25 °C)15.410.74.8d
TRTropical nights (Tmin > 20 °C)1.42.3−0.9d
WSDIWarm spell days (≥ 6 days)4.4——d
CSDICold spell days (≥ 6 days)0.0——d
Rx1dayMaximum 1-day precipitation11.59.42.0mm
Rx5dayMaximum 5-day precipitation16.915.61.3mm
CDDConsecutive dry days (< 1 mm)15.821.1−5.3d
CWDConsecutive wet days (≥ 1 mm)1.81.60.2d

Percentile indices relative to calendar-day percentiles of 1991–2020 (5-day window); counts and maxima averaged over the country's grid cells.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Frost days by state

Frost days by state

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Heat and cold waves

DatesTypeDetails
2026-01-02 – 2026-01-09Heat waveUp to 71% of the country above the 90th percentile of Tmax. Regions: North, Northeast, North-central, West-central, Central, South and East.

Wave: at least 3 consecutive days with at least half of the country above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature (heat) or below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature (cold). At most the 10 most intense are listed.

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

6 Drought

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending January 2026

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ending January 2026
SPI computed from CHIRPS; gamma distribution fitted to 1991–2020 accumulations.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Share of the country by SPI category

Share of the country by SPI category

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

States with the lowest SPI-3

StateSPI-1SPI-3SPI-6SPI-12Category
Morelos−1.3−2.31.11.4Extreme drought
Tlaxcala−0.9−1.60.31.6Severe drought
Ciudad de México−0.9−1.51.21.6Severe drought
Puebla−1.2−1.30.10.9Moderate drought
Hidalgo−0.7−1.30.01.6Moderate drought
Estado de México−0.0−1.20.10.9Moderate drought
Tamaulipas−0.9−1.2−0.5−0.0Moderate drought
Querétaro−0.5−1.1−0.01.1Moderate drought
Guerrero−0.1−1.0−0.60.2Moderate drought
San Luis Potosí−0.4−1.0−0.50.1Moderate drought

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

SPI-3 (Nov 2025–Jan 2026): national mean −0.37; 15% of the country in drought (SPI ≤ −1.0) and 6% in severe or extreme drought.

Most affected states: Morelos (−2.33), Tlaxcala (−1.59) and Ciudad de México (−1.50).

SPI-1 (January 2026): 10% of the country in drought.

SPI-6 (Aug 2025–Jan 2026): 16% of the country in drought.

SPI-12 (Feb 2025–Jan 2026): 13% of the country in drought.

7 Severe weather and notable events

No tropical cyclone came within 300 km of the country.

9 Outlook

Outlook for February 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for February 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Outlook for Feb–Apr 2026: most likely tercile

Outlook for Feb–Apr 2026: most likely tercile

Source: NOAA CPC

Probability of each tercile by region, Feb–Apr 2026 (%)

RegionPrecipitation: belowPrecipitation: normalPrecipitation: aboveTemp.: belowTemp.: normalTemp.: above
Northwest40.035.025.018.026.056.0
North32.036.032.07.025.068.0
Northeast40.034.026.06.024.070.0
North-central26.035.038.08.024.068.0
West-central26.034.039.012.022.066.0
Central28.035.038.012.028.060.0
South29.033.038.017.032.051.0
East36.033.031.019.026.055.0
Yucatán Peninsula42.031.027.018.030.052.0

Source: NOAA CPC

Probabilistic outlook from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), initialised in February 2026, relative to 1991–2020 terciles. It is not an official forecast: consult the national meteorological service.

Precipitation, February 2026: above normal is favoured over 18% of the country and below normal over 41%.

Mean temperature, February 2026: above normal is favoured over 85% of the country and below normal over 1%.

Precipitation, Feb–Apr 2026: above normal is favoured over 18% of the country and below normal over 13%.

Mean temperature, Feb–Apr 2026: above normal is favoured over 98% of the country and below normal over 0%.

10 Annexes

Report climate regions

Report climate regions

Monthly precipitation by state (mm)

StateJan
Aguascalientes7.0
Baja California16.4
Baja California Sur18.6
Campeche29.9
Chiapas51.1
Chihuahua27.3
Ciudad de México1.0
Coahuila14.6
Colima18.9
Durango33.5
Guanajuato11.7
Guerrero5.8
Hidalgo8.0
Jalisco15.7
Estado de México8.6
Michoacán13.9
Morelos0.1
Nayarit15.0
Nuevo León7.5
Oaxaca18.1
Puebla9.1
Querétaro5.8
Quintana Roo39.6
San Luis Potosí9.3
Sinaloa36.9
Sonora38.1
Tabasco136.7
Tamaulipas4.1
Tlaxcala1.4
Veracruz51.1
Yucatán21.8
Zacatecas13.2

CSV

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Monthly maximum temperature by state (°C)

StateJan
Aguascalientes22.8
Baja California21.2
Baja California Sur25.5
Campeche28.5
Chiapas27.8
Chihuahua19.1
Ciudad de México21.0
Coahuila20.6
Colima31.1
Durango22.3
Guanajuato25.1
Guerrero32.1
Hidalgo22.2
Jalisco27.4
Estado de México24.1
Michoacán30.8
Morelos29.0
Nayarit28.4
Nuevo León22.4
Oaxaca28.9
Puebla25.9
Querétaro23.4
Quintana Roo29.0
San Luis Potosí23.2
Sinaloa29.1
Sonora23.5
Tabasco27.1
Tamaulipas23.4
Tlaxcala22.7
Veracruz25.2
Yucatán29.7
Zacatecas20.7

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly mean temperature by state (°C)

StateJan
Aguascalientes14.8
Baja California16.2
Baja California Sur19.7
Campeche22.6
Chiapas22.5
Chihuahua10.5
Ciudad de México12.7
Coahuila12.8
Colima25.2
Durango13.9
Guanajuato16.9
Guerrero24.6
Hidalgo14.9
Jalisco19.4
Estado de México15.2
Michoacán22.0
Morelos19.7
Nayarit21.2
Nuevo León15.0
Oaxaca21.1
Puebla17.2
Querétaro16.4
Quintana Roo23.2
San Luis Potosí15.4
Sinaloa20.9
Sonora16.2
Tabasco23.4
Tamaulipas16.7
Tlaxcala13.2
Veracruz20.5
Yucatán23.3
Zacatecas13.4

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Monthly minimum temperature by state (°C)

StateJan
Aguascalientes6.8
Baja California11.2
Baja California Sur14.0
Campeche16.7
Chiapas17.1
Chihuahua2.0
Ciudad de México4.5
Coahuila4.9
Colima19.3
Durango5.5
Guanajuato8.6
Guerrero17.2
Hidalgo7.7
Jalisco11.3
Estado de México6.3
Michoacán13.3
Morelos10.5
Nayarit14.0
Nuevo León7.7
Oaxaca13.4
Puebla8.5
Querétaro9.4
Quintana Roo17.5
San Luis Potosí7.5
Sinaloa12.8
Sonora8.8
Tabasco19.7
Tamaulipas10.0
Tlaxcala3.8
Veracruz15.8
Yucatán16.9
Zacatecas6.1

CSV

Source: NOAA CPC / PSL

Stations used

IdNameStateLatitudeLongitudeAltitude (m)Days with data (Tmax) (%)
MXM00076040Ejido Nuevo Leon (Obs)Baja California32.4−115.211.384.0
MXM00076055San Felipe BcnBaja California31.0−114.815.094.0
MXM00076061Puerto PenascoSonora31.3−113.562.00.0
MXM00076593ProgresoYucatán21.3−89.72.4100.0
MXM00076737OrizabaVeracruz18.9−97.11259.00.0
MXM00076843Francisco SarabiaChiapas16.8−93.31051.997.0

CSV

Source: NOAA NCEI

11 Glossary, methodology and sources

Anomaly: difference between the observed value and its 1991–2020 normal. Percent of normal: observed total divided by the normal, times 100. Station record: most extreme daily value for the same month in all earlier years of record (at least 20 years).

Temperature: CPC_TEMP (0.5° daily grid); mean temperature is (Tmax + Tmin)/2. Precipitation: CHIRPS. National, regional and state averages are weighted by the area of each grid cell inside each polygon. Normals refer to 1991-2020; ranks compare values rounded to one decimal. Stations: GHCN-Daily (NOAA NCEI); values flagged by its quality control are discarded, as are daily values more than 5 robust standard deviations from the station median and variables whose monthly anomaly differs by more than 3 °C from the gridded analysis. Period means require at least 80% of days with data and station normals at least 20 complete years. This report is generated automatically and does not replace official information from the national meteorological service.

SourceProductLicenseCitation
UCSB Climate Hazards CenterCHIRPS v3.0, 0.05°See provider termsClimate Hazards Center, UC Santa Barbara. CHIRPS v3.0.
NOAA CPCONI, Niño-region SST indices (OISST v2.1), NAO and AOPublic domain (NOAA)NOAA Climate Prediction Center climate indices.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Precipitation data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA CPC / PSLCPC Global Unified Temperature, daily 0.5°Public domain (NOAA)CPC Global Unified Temperature data provided by NOAA PSL, Boulder, CO, USA.
NOAA NCEI / PSLExtended Reconstructed SST v5 (ERSST v5), 2°Public domain (NOAA)Huang et al. (2017), J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
GDACSGlobal Disaster Alert and Coordination System event listSee provider terms—
NOAA NCEIGHCN-DailyPublic domain (NOAA)Menne et al. (2012), J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00103.1
NOAA NCEIIBTrACS v04r01 tropical-cyclone best tracksPublic domain (NOAA)Knapp et al. (2010), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1
NOAA NCEIPacific Decadal Oscillation index (ERSST v5)Public domain (NOAA)—
NOAA CPCNorth American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) tercile probabilities, 1°Public domain (NOAA)Kirtman et al. (2014), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1
NOAA PSLReal-time OLR MJO Index (ROMI)Public domain (NOAA)Kiladis et al. (2014), Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1
NOAA PSLTropical Northern Atlantic index (TNA)Public domain (NOAA)Enfield et al. (1999), J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/1999JC900039
geoBoundariesgeoBoundaries gbOpen (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI))Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)—

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